TABLE 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 95

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-12, to obtain a forecast for the third quarter of 2010 using the model, which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

• A) X = 22, Q₁ = 0, Q₂ = 0, Q₃ = 0
• B) X = 22, Q₁ = 0, Q₂ = 0, Q₃ = 1
• C) X = 23, Q₁ = 0, Q₂ = 0, Q₃ = 0
• D) X = 23, Q₁ = 0, Q₂ = 0, Q₃ = 1

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Definitions:

Price Indexes

Price indexes are statistical measures that reflect the average change in prices over time of a basket of goods and services, used to gauge inflation or deflation in an economy.

Nominal GDP

The total value, in current market prices, of all the final goods and services generated within a country's borders over a certain time period.

Real GDP

Real GDP, which adjusts for price changes to offer a true measure of an economy's overall size and its growth trajectory.

Base-Year Prices

Prices of goods and services from a specific base year, used to calculate real values and remove the effect of inflation over time.