TABLE 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 76

Short Answer

TABLE 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-12, using the regression equation, what is the forecast for the revenues in the first quarter of 2012?

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Definitions:

Contract Rate

The agreed-upon rate specified in a contract that determines the amount of interest to be accrued on financial instruments such as loans or bonds.

Face Value

The nominal or dollar value printed on a security or financial instrument, such as a bond or stock.

Interest Paid

The amount paid by a borrower to a lender for the privilege of borrowing money, typically expressed as an annual percentage rate.

Effective Interest Rate

The true rate of simple interest.