TABLE 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

question 2

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2008 to 2010. The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Ŷ = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where Ŷ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-14, using the regression equation, which of the following values is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the second quarter of 2012?

• A) 144,212
• B) 391,742
• C) 1,238,797
• D) 4,355,119

---

Definitions:

Second Stimulus

An additional stimulus presented following the first, which can modify the response to the initial stimulus.

ADHD

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, a neurological disorder characterized by problems with focus, hyperactivity, and impulsiveness.

7th Graders

Students who are typically between the ages of 12 and 13, studying in the seventh grade of school in many educational systems.

Environmental Correlates

Factors within the environment that are associated with the occurrence of specific behaviors or conditions.