Suppose That the Manager of a Company Has Estimated the Probability

question 44

Multiple Choice

Suppose that the manager of a company has estimated the probability of a super-event sometime during the next five years that will disrupt all suppliers as 0.23%. In addition, the firm currently uses three suppliers for its main component, and the manager estimates the probability of a unique-event that would disrupt one of them sometime during the next five years to be 1.1%. What is the probability that all three suppliers will be disrupted at the same time at some point during the next five years?

• A) 4.4203%
• B) 0.2301%
• C) 4.4300%
• D) 0.2297%
• E) 0.2303%

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Definitions:

Atheist/Agnostic

A belief system where an atheist lacks belief in deities, while an agnostic holds a view that the existence of deities is unknown or unknowable.

Spirituality

The quality of being concerned with the human spirit or soul as opposed to material or physical things; often involves a sense of connection to something bigger than oneself.

Spirituality

A broad concept involving the search for meaning, purpose, and connection with something greater than oneself, which may or may not include religious beliefs.

Transcendence

The state or experience of going beyond normal physical limits or boundaries, often used in spiritual or philosophical contexts to denote overcoming the ordinary.