SCENARIO 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 142

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-14 A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2011 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation: where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter. X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2011. is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. Q is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Scenario 16-14, to obtain a forecast for the fourth quarter of 2014 using the model, which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

• A)X = 15,
• B)X = 15,
• C)X = 16,
• D)X = 16,

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Definitions:

Sum Of Squares

A statistical measure that quantifies the dispersion or variation within a data set, typically used in variance and regression analysis.

Regression SSR

The sum of squares due to regression, indicating the explained variance by the regression model in the data.

Error SSE

The sum of squared errors in statistical analysis, indicating the discrepancy between observed and predicted values.

Allman Brothers

A Southern rock band formed in 1969, known for their significant influence on the genre with hits like "Ramblin' Man" and "Midnight Rider."