Instruction 14-4
a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 168

Multiple Choice

Instruction 14-4
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters,using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2008 to 2010.The following is the resulting regression equation:
$\log _ { 10 } \hat { Y } = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q _ { 1 } + 1.28 Q _ { 2 } + 0.617 Q _ { 3 }$
Where
$$\hat { Y }$$ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Instruction 14-4,the best interpretation of the constant 3.37 in the regression equation is

• A)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2008,prior to seasonal adjustment,is log₁₀ 3.37.
• B)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2008,after seasonal adjustment,is 10^3.37.
• C)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2008,after seasonal adjustment,is log₁₀ 3.37.
• D)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2008,prior to seasonal adjustment,is 10^3.37.

---

Definitions:

Conserving

The act of preserving something in its original or existing state, often referring to natural resources, energy, or cultural heritage.

Egocentric Speech

A developmental stage in children where language is used primarily for the self, without consideration for the listener's perspective or understanding.

Social Speech

Speech used in social situations to communicate with others, often reflecting societal norms and practices.

Prevent Obesity

Strategies or actions aimed at reducing the risk or incidence of obesity through measures like healthy eating, regular exercise, and lifestyle modifications.