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You Are Hired to Forecast the Unemployment Rate in a Geographical

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You are hired to forecast the unemployment rate in a geographical area that is peripheral to a large metropolitan area in the United States.The area in question is called the Inland Empire (San Bernardino County and Riverside County)and is situated east of Greater Los Angeles (Los Angeles County and Orange County).While the area has a large population (it is the 14th largest metropolitan statistical area in the United States),its economic activity relies heavily on that of the larger area it is attached to.For example,it is estimated that approximately 20% of its workforce commutes into the Greater Los Angeles area for work and few workers commute the other way.Furthermore,its logistics industry is heavily dependent on economic activity in the Greater Los Angeles Area.As a result,you view the unemployment rate of the Greater Los Angeles Area (urGLA)to be exogenous in determining the unemployment rate in the Inland Empire (urIE).You estimate the following distributed lag model,where numbers in parenthesis are HAC standard errors:
Δ You are hired to forecast the unemployment rate in a geographical area that is peripheral to a large metropolitan area in the United States.The area in question is called the Inland Empire (San Bernardino County and Riverside County)and is situated east of Greater Los Angeles (Los Angeles County and Orange County).While the area has a large population (it is the 14th largest metropolitan statistical area in the United States),its economic activity relies heavily on that of the larger area it is attached to.For example,it is estimated that approximately 20% of its workforce commutes into the Greater Los Angeles area for work and few workers commute the other way.Furthermore,its logistics industry is heavily dependent on economic activity in the Greater Los Angeles Area.As a result,you view the unemployment rate of the Greater Los Angeles Area (urGLA)to be exogenous in determining the unemployment rate in the Inland Empire (urIE).You estimate the following distributed lag model,where numbers in parenthesis are HAC standard errors: Δ = 0.00002 + 0.74 Δ - 0.04 Δ - 0.01 Δ + 0.07 Δ + 0.05 Δ (0.00010)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06) + 0.09 Δ + 0.10Δ (0.05)(0.06) t = 1991:01-2009:12,R2 = 0.60,SER = 0.001 a.What is the impact effect of a one percentage point increase (say from 0.06 to 0.07)of the unemployment rate in the Greater Los Angeles area? b.What is the long-run cumulative dynamic multiplier? c.Why do you think the variables above appear in changes rather than in levels? = 0.00002 + 0.74 Δ You are hired to forecast the unemployment rate in a geographical area that is peripheral to a large metropolitan area in the United States.The area in question is called the Inland Empire (San Bernardino County and Riverside County)and is situated east of Greater Los Angeles (Los Angeles County and Orange County).While the area has a large population (it is the 14th largest metropolitan statistical area in the United States),its economic activity relies heavily on that of the larger area it is attached to.For example,it is estimated that approximately 20% of its workforce commutes into the Greater Los Angeles area for work and few workers commute the other way.Furthermore,its logistics industry is heavily dependent on economic activity in the Greater Los Angeles Area.As a result,you view the unemployment rate of the Greater Los Angeles Area (urGLA)to be exogenous in determining the unemployment rate in the Inland Empire (urIE).You estimate the following distributed lag model,where numbers in parenthesis are HAC standard errors: Δ = 0.00002 + 0.74 Δ - 0.04 Δ - 0.01 Δ + 0.07 Δ + 0.05 Δ (0.00010)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06) + 0.09 Δ + 0.10Δ (0.05)(0.06) t = 1991:01-2009:12,R2 = 0.60,SER = 0.001 a.What is the impact effect of a one percentage point increase (say from 0.06 to 0.07)of the unemployment rate in the Greater Los Angeles area? b.What is the long-run cumulative dynamic multiplier? c.Why do you think the variables above appear in changes rather than in levels? - 0.04 Δ You are hired to forecast the unemployment rate in a geographical area that is peripheral to a large metropolitan area in the United States.The area in question is called the Inland Empire (San Bernardino County and Riverside County)and is situated east of Greater Los Angeles (Los Angeles County and Orange County).While the area has a large population (it is the 14th largest metropolitan statistical area in the United States),its economic activity relies heavily on that of the larger area it is attached to.For example,it is estimated that approximately 20% of its workforce commutes into the Greater Los Angeles area for work and few workers commute the other way.Furthermore,its logistics industry is heavily dependent on economic activity in the Greater Los Angeles Area.As a result,you view the unemployment rate of the Greater Los Angeles Area (urGLA)to be exogenous in determining the unemployment rate in the Inland Empire (urIE).You estimate the following distributed lag model,where numbers in parenthesis are HAC standard errors: Δ = 0.00002 + 0.74 Δ - 0.04 Δ - 0.01 Δ + 0.07 Δ + 0.05 Δ (0.00010)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06) + 0.09 Δ + 0.10Δ (0.05)(0.06) t = 1991:01-2009:12,R2 = 0.60,SER = 0.001 a.What is the impact effect of a one percentage point increase (say from 0.06 to 0.07)of the unemployment rate in the Greater Los Angeles area? b.What is the long-run cumulative dynamic multiplier? c.Why do you think the variables above appear in changes rather than in levels? - 0.01 Δ You are hired to forecast the unemployment rate in a geographical area that is peripheral to a large metropolitan area in the United States.The area in question is called the Inland Empire (San Bernardino County and Riverside County)and is situated east of Greater Los Angeles (Los Angeles County and Orange County).While the area has a large population (it is the 14th largest metropolitan statistical area in the United States),its economic activity relies heavily on that of the larger area it is attached to.For example,it is estimated that approximately 20% of its workforce commutes into the Greater Los Angeles area for work and few workers commute the other way.Furthermore,its logistics industry is heavily dependent on economic activity in the Greater Los Angeles Area.As a result,you view the unemployment rate of the Greater Los Angeles Area (urGLA)to be exogenous in determining the unemployment rate in the Inland Empire (urIE).You estimate the following distributed lag model,where numbers in parenthesis are HAC standard errors: Δ = 0.00002 + 0.74 Δ - 0.04 Δ - 0.01 Δ + 0.07 Δ + 0.05 Δ (0.00010)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06) + 0.09 Δ + 0.10Δ (0.05)(0.06) t = 1991:01-2009:12,R2 = 0.60,SER = 0.001 a.What is the impact effect of a one percentage point increase (say from 0.06 to 0.07)of the unemployment rate in the Greater Los Angeles area? b.What is the long-run cumulative dynamic multiplier? c.Why do you think the variables above appear in changes rather than in levels? + 0.07 Δ You are hired to forecast the unemployment rate in a geographical area that is peripheral to a large metropolitan area in the United States.The area in question is called the Inland Empire (San Bernardino County and Riverside County)and is situated east of Greater Los Angeles (Los Angeles County and Orange County).While the area has a large population (it is the 14th largest metropolitan statistical area in the United States),its economic activity relies heavily on that of the larger area it is attached to.For example,it is estimated that approximately 20% of its workforce commutes into the Greater Los Angeles area for work and few workers commute the other way.Furthermore,its logistics industry is heavily dependent on economic activity in the Greater Los Angeles Area.As a result,you view the unemployment rate of the Greater Los Angeles Area (urGLA)to be exogenous in determining the unemployment rate in the Inland Empire (urIE).You estimate the following distributed lag model,where numbers in parenthesis are HAC standard errors: Δ = 0.00002 + 0.74 Δ - 0.04 Δ - 0.01 Δ + 0.07 Δ + 0.05 Δ (0.00010)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06) + 0.09 Δ + 0.10Δ (0.05)(0.06) t = 1991:01-2009:12,R2 = 0.60,SER = 0.001 a.What is the impact effect of a one percentage point increase (say from 0.06 to 0.07)of the unemployment rate in the Greater Los Angeles area? b.What is the long-run cumulative dynamic multiplier? c.Why do you think the variables above appear in changes rather than in levels? + 0.05 Δ You are hired to forecast the unemployment rate in a geographical area that is peripheral to a large metropolitan area in the United States.The area in question is called the Inland Empire (San Bernardino County and Riverside County)and is situated east of Greater Los Angeles (Los Angeles County and Orange County).While the area has a large population (it is the 14th largest metropolitan statistical area in the United States),its economic activity relies heavily on that of the larger area it is attached to.For example,it is estimated that approximately 20% of its workforce commutes into the Greater Los Angeles area for work and few workers commute the other way.Furthermore,its logistics industry is heavily dependent on economic activity in the Greater Los Angeles Area.As a result,you view the unemployment rate of the Greater Los Angeles Area (urGLA)to be exogenous in determining the unemployment rate in the Inland Empire (urIE).You estimate the following distributed lag model,where numbers in parenthesis are HAC standard errors: Δ = 0.00002 + 0.74 Δ - 0.04 Δ - 0.01 Δ + 0.07 Δ + 0.05 Δ (0.00010)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06) + 0.09 Δ + 0.10Δ (0.05)(0.06) t = 1991:01-2009:12,R2 = 0.60,SER = 0.001 a.What is the impact effect of a one percentage point increase (say from 0.06 to 0.07)of the unemployment rate in the Greater Los Angeles area? b.What is the long-run cumulative dynamic multiplier? c.Why do you think the variables above appear in changes rather than in levels? (0.00010)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)
+ 0.09 Δ You are hired to forecast the unemployment rate in a geographical area that is peripheral to a large metropolitan area in the United States.The area in question is called the Inland Empire (San Bernardino County and Riverside County)and is situated east of Greater Los Angeles (Los Angeles County and Orange County).While the area has a large population (it is the 14th largest metropolitan statistical area in the United States),its economic activity relies heavily on that of the larger area it is attached to.For example,it is estimated that approximately 20% of its workforce commutes into the Greater Los Angeles area for work and few workers commute the other way.Furthermore,its logistics industry is heavily dependent on economic activity in the Greater Los Angeles Area.As a result,you view the unemployment rate of the Greater Los Angeles Area (urGLA)to be exogenous in determining the unemployment rate in the Inland Empire (urIE).You estimate the following distributed lag model,where numbers in parenthesis are HAC standard errors: Δ = 0.00002 + 0.74 Δ - 0.04 Δ - 0.01 Δ + 0.07 Δ + 0.05 Δ (0.00010)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06) + 0.09 Δ + 0.10Δ (0.05)(0.06) t = 1991:01-2009:12,R2 = 0.60,SER = 0.001 a.What is the impact effect of a one percentage point increase (say from 0.06 to 0.07)of the unemployment rate in the Greater Los Angeles area? b.What is the long-run cumulative dynamic multiplier? c.Why do you think the variables above appear in changes rather than in levels? + 0.10Δ You are hired to forecast the unemployment rate in a geographical area that is peripheral to a large metropolitan area in the United States.The area in question is called the Inland Empire (San Bernardino County and Riverside County)and is situated east of Greater Los Angeles (Los Angeles County and Orange County).While the area has a large population (it is the 14th largest metropolitan statistical area in the United States),its economic activity relies heavily on that of the larger area it is attached to.For example,it is estimated that approximately 20% of its workforce commutes into the Greater Los Angeles area for work and few workers commute the other way.Furthermore,its logistics industry is heavily dependent on economic activity in the Greater Los Angeles Area.As a result,you view the unemployment rate of the Greater Los Angeles Area (urGLA)to be exogenous in determining the unemployment rate in the Inland Empire (urIE).You estimate the following distributed lag model,where numbers in parenthesis are HAC standard errors: Δ = 0.00002 + 0.74 Δ - 0.04 Δ - 0.01 Δ + 0.07 Δ + 0.05 Δ (0.00010)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06)(0.06) + 0.09 Δ + 0.10Δ (0.05)(0.06) t = 1991:01-2009:12,R2 = 0.60,SER = 0.001 a.What is the impact effect of a one percentage point increase (say from 0.06 to 0.07)of the unemployment rate in the Greater Los Angeles area? b.What is the long-run cumulative dynamic multiplier? c.Why do you think the variables above appear in changes rather than in levels? (0.05)(0.06)
t = 1991:01-2009:12,R2 = 0.60,SER = 0.001
a.What is the impact effect of a one percentage point increase (say from 0.06 to 0.07)of the unemployment rate in the Greater Los Angeles area?
b.What is the long-run cumulative dynamic multiplier?
c.Why do you think the variables above appear in changes rather than in levels?

Definitions:

Gender Stereotyping

The practice of ascribing to an individual specific attributes, characteristics, or roles by reason only of their gender.

Gender Constancy

The understanding that one's gender remains the same across time and situations, typically developed by age 6 or 7.

Gender Stability

The understanding and recognition that one's gender identity is consistent and persistent over time.

Electra Complex

A psychoanalytic concept referring to a girl's psychosexual competition with her mother for possession of her father.

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