SCENARIO 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

question 3

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters,using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2011 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Y^ˆ = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2011.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Scenario 16-14,using the regression equation,which of the following values is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the third quarter of 2014?

• A)49,091
• B)133,352
• C)421,697
• D)1,482,518

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Definitions:

Market Share

The percentage of total sales or revenue generated by a company within a particular market relative to its competitors.

Excise Tax

A tax levied on the production of a specific product or on the quantity of the product purchased.

Tax Revenues

The income that is gained by governments through taxation, an important source of revenue for government expenditures.

Inelastic Demand

A situation in which the demand for a product does not significantly change with a change in its price.