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question 44

Essay

Use the information for the question(s)below.
Kinston Industries has come up with a new mountain bike prototype and is ready to go ahead with pilot production and test marketing.The pilot production and test marketing phase will last for one year and cost $500,000.Your management team believes that there is a 50% chance that the test marketing will be successful and that there will be sufficient demand for the new mountain bike.If the test-marketing phase is successful,then Kinston Industries will invest $3 million in year one to build a plant that will generate expected annual after-tax cash flows of $400,000 in perpetuity beginning in year two.If the test marketing is not successful,Kinston can still go ahead and build the new plant,but the expected annual after-tax cash flows would be only $200,000 in perpetuity beginning in year two.Kinston has the option to stop the project at any time and sell the prototype mountain bike to an overseas competitor for $300,000.Kinston's cost of capital is 10%.
-Assume that Kinston has the ability to ignore the pilot production and test marketing and to go ahead and build their manufacturing plant immediately.Further assume that the probability of high or low demand is still 50%.Draw a decision tree that details Kinston Industries Mountain Bike project if Kinston goes ahead and builds the plant immediately.

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Definitions:

Welfare State

A social system in which the government takes responsibility for the well-being of its citizens by providing services such as healthcare, education, and financial assistance.

Consensus

Consensus is the general agreement reached by a group as a whole, often used in the context of decision-making processes where unity and collective support are sought.

Bretton Woods

Refers to the international monetary system established in 1944 in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, which set up rules for commercial and financial relations among the world's major industrial states.

International Monetary Fund

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international organization that aims to promote global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.