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Assume That Two Presidential Candidates,call Them Bush and Gore,receive 50

question 62

Essay

Assume that two presidential candidates,call them Bush and Gore,receive 50% of the votes in the population.You can model this situation as a Bernoulli trial,where Y is a random variable with success probability Pr(Y = 1)= p,and where Y = 1 if a person votes for Bush and Y = 0 otherwise.Furthermore,let $Assume that two presidential candidates,call them Bush and Gore,receive 50% of the votes in the population.You can model this situation as a Bernoulli trial,where Y is a random variable with success probability Pr(Y = 1)= p,and where Y = 1 if a person votes for Bush and Y = 0 otherwise.Furthermore,let be the fraction of successes (1s)in a sample,which is distributed N(p, )in reasonably large samples,say for n ≥ 40. (a)Given your knowledge about the population,find the probability that in a random sample of 40,Bush would receive a share of 40% or less. (b)How would this situation change with a random sample of 100? (c)Given your answers in (a)and (b),would you be comfortable to predict what the voting intentions for the entire population are if you did not know p but had polled 10,000 individuals at random and calculated ? Explain. (d)This result seems to hold whether you poll 10,000 people at random in the Netherlands or the United States,where the former has a population of less than 20 million people,while the United States is 15 times as populous.Why does the population size not come into play?$ be the fraction of successes (1s)in a sample,which is distributed N(p, $Assume that two presidential candidates,call them Bush and Gore,receive 50% of the votes in the population.You can model this situation as a Bernoulli trial,where Y is a random variable with success probability Pr(Y = 1)= p,and where Y = 1 if a person votes for Bush and Y = 0 otherwise.Furthermore,let be the fraction of successes (1s)in a sample,which is distributed N(p, )in reasonably large samples,say for n ≥ 40. (a)Given your knowledge about the population,find the probability that in a random sample of 40,Bush would receive a share of 40% or less. (b)How would this situation change with a random sample of 100? (c)Given your answers in (a)and (b),would you be comfortable to predict what the voting intentions for the entire population are if you did not know p but had polled 10,000 individuals at random and calculated ? Explain. (d)This result seems to hold whether you poll 10,000 people at random in the Netherlands or the United States,where the former has a population of less than 20 million people,while the United States is 15 times as populous.Why does the population size not come into play?$ )in reasonably large samples,say for n ≥ 40.
(a)Given your knowledge about the population,find the probability that in a random sample of 40,Bush would receive a share of 40% or less.
(b)How would this situation change with a random sample of 100?
(c)Given your answers in (a)and (b),would you be comfortable to predict what the voting intentions for the entire population are if you did not know p but had polled 10,000 individuals at random and calculated $Assume that two presidential candidates,call them Bush and Gore,receive 50% of the votes in the population.You can model this situation as a Bernoulli trial,where Y is a random variable with success probability Pr(Y = 1)= p,and where Y = 1 if a person votes for Bush and Y = 0 otherwise.Furthermore,let be the fraction of successes (1s)in a sample,which is distributed N(p, )in reasonably large samples,say for n ≥ 40. (a)Given your knowledge about the population,find the probability that in a random sample of 40,Bush would receive a share of 40% or less. (b)How would this situation change with a random sample of 100? (c)Given your answers in (a)and (b),would you be comfortable to predict what the voting intentions for the entire population are if you did not know p but had polled 10,000 individuals at random and calculated ? Explain. (d)This result seems to hold whether you poll 10,000 people at random in the Netherlands or the United States,where the former has a population of less than 20 million people,while the United States is 15 times as populous.Why does the population size not come into play?$ ? Explain.
(d)This result seems to hold whether you poll 10,000 people at random in the Netherlands or the United States,where the former has a population of less than 20 million people,while the United States is 15 times as populous.Why does the population size not come into play?

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